El último Informe global sobre la droga 2016 de la Oficina de las Naciones Unidas contra la Droga y el Delito (ONUDD) presenta un análisis extenso sobre producción, incautaciones y consumo, que lleva a una conclusión sorprendente: el negocio de la cocaína parecer estar cayendo. El informe plantea una pregunta que tiene implicaciones importantes para el crimen organizado de Latinoamérica: ¿hay contracción en el mercado global de la cocaína?

Candi CdeBaca voted to legalize the free sale of marijuana in Colorado four years ago because she thought it would be good for her Denver neighborhood. She hoped that when Colorado became the first state in the nation to legalize the sale of recreational marijuana in 2014 it would not only keep people out of court, but also open up a legitimate means of earning a living. Today she would vote differently. “We have just swapped one kind of drug dealer for another,” said CdeBaca. All legalization has done is open the door to a takeover by corporate interests.

Cannabis may be legal in Vancouver but visitors looking to score are likely to run into a seemingly counterintuitive suggestion: try the black market. Recreational marijuana was legalised across Canada in October 2018. And yet on Reddit, the specialist forum website used by millions every day, many of Vancouver’s cannabis connoisseurs still swear by their underground supply. This is one of the major issues facing North America’s marijuana companies, which experts say are in the midst of a dotcom-style market crash. Little over a year ago companies that cultivate and sell cannabis were seen by investors as one of the hottest tickets in town. Now billions of dollars have been wiped off the market values of the industry’s largest companies.

A village in Lebanon, where cannabis grows everywhere, has long counted on hashish for income. But the country’s economic crisis has farmers reconsidering the crop. The Lebanese pound has lost 80 percent of its value against the United States dollar since last fall, and farmers have taken the hit. The costs of imported fuel and fertilizer needed to grow the crop have soared, while the Lebanese pounds that growers earn by selling their hash are worth less and less. Lebanon’s financial crisis has also undermined the drug’s domestic market, and the war in Syria has snarled smuggling routes, making it harder for middlemen to reach foreign markets.

In Nhlangano, in the south of Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), the illegal farming of the mountainous kingdom’s famous “Swazi gold” is a risk many grandmothers are ready to take. In what is known locally as the “gardens of Eden”, a generation of grandparents are growing cannabis, many of them sole carers for some of the many children orphaned by the HIV/Aids epidemic that gripped southern Africa. Currently, there is only one legal Eswatini cannabis grower: the US-based Profile Solutions Inc has a licence to grow and process medical cannabis and hemp for a minimum of 10 years. But, despite the risks, the Swazi gold grandmothers do not want to join the legal market: “Legalising weed might be a threat to our market, as prices might drop. We want the current situation to remain in place.”

Dans de nombreux douars des provinces «réputées» abriter des sites de culture de cannabis, des familles entières vivent de cette activité. Enclavées ou pas de plus en plus de personnes sont attirées par l’appât du gain. C’est dans la région du nord du pays que se concentre la culture du cannabis. A cheval sur 5 provinces, elle est traversée d’est en ouest par la chaîne montagneuse du Rif. Elle se  caractérise par un relief accidenté, une pluviométrie, certes abondante, mais irrégulière, et des sols pauvres et très sensibles à l’érosion. La densité de population (124 habitants/km2) y est trois fois plus élevée que la moyenne nationale (37 habitants/km²). Dans cette zone, principalement dans certaines communes du Rif central, le cannabis est cultivé depuis le XVe siècle.

As the UNODC put it, this was “one of the largest and most successful counternarcotics operations” in Asia’s history. Myanmar’s army and police, which conducted the raids, are naturally pleased. But the story behind the raid is quite messy — one involving double-crossing traffickers, Chinese mafia and even the White House. Myanmar’s government has known about the labs for years. The same goes for the United States’ Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) and Chinese intelligence. Even The World knew it was there, writing in 2015 that the area contains “a number of heroin and meth refineries.” The labs went undisturbed because they were protected by a militia — one that happens to serve under Myanmar’s army.

Forty years ago, the Netherlands was far ahead of its time. But today we see the country moving backwards, as evidenced by a recent report on the drugs culture in Amsterdam. The authors of the report, believe that Dutch society is ‘undermined’ by organised drugs crime, though it’s hard to say what the evidence is to support these conclusions. A new ‘hard approach’ – rather similar to the old approach elsewhere in the world – with more police powers must be deployed, in addition to stigmatising users, the report’s authors argued. The ban on drugs does not have the support of the majority of the Dutch. Most use is not problematic and users would rather buy their goods in a legal market, with quality guarantees and tax revenues to be spent on the people who do get into trouble.

We’ve already witnessed the havoc of coronavirus as panic-buying compromises supply and distribution of food and some medicines. The illicit drug market is not immune to coronavirus either. We are a net importer of drugs like cocaine and heroin, so when borders are shut moving drugs becomes more difficult. People don’t behave rationally, whether it’s about the supply of toilet roll or cocaine. When one drug is in short supply, another takes its place. If, for example, heroin is substituted with fentanyl – fifty times more potent – the potential for overdose is clear. If ever there was a time to introduce drug consumption rooms, it is now. (See also: Impact of Covid-19 on drugs trade likely to hit recreational cocaine users most | How coronavirus is changing the market for illegal drugs)

Se ha cumplido un año de la legalización canadiense del cannabis recreativo. Canadá fue el segundo país –después de Uruguay- en insertar en el marco legal la mariguana con fines lúdicos, pero ha sido hasta el momento el único miembro del G20 en llevar a cabo una medida de ese calado en todo su territorio. “El escenario negativo tan publicitado simplemente no ocurrió. Se temía un aumento del consumo y consecuencias en la esfera laboral. También se imaginaban salas de urgencias saturadas. La legalización entró en vigor, va avanzando y refleja que es mejor que la prohibición. Por supuesto que está el tema del mercado negro. Aún es muy grande, pero tomará tiempo para que se reduzca significativamente”, comenta Jean-Sébastien Fallu, profesor en la Universidad de Montreal

Dozens of legal cannabis producers, backed by billions in investor capital, were expected to put the black market on its heels, launching Canada to the forefront of an expanding global industry with the promise of mass-produced, high-quality, heavily regulated marijuana. But scandals, sluggish earnings and executive shakeups have replaced the soaring expectations of a year ago. Government data show that the legal market has only supplanted 14 per cent of the black market since legalization on Oct. 17, 2018, and some are concerned that further inroads may be difficult to come by. One of the biggest problems was that the industry’s early focus on scale — something that was largely a symptom of the push to raise capital ahead of legalization — distracted it from other important considerations.

Thousands of small producers have made Albania, Europe’s second-poorest country, its biggest open-air producer of cannabis, exported mainly to western Europe through Greece and Italy. But as Albania tries to clean up its act ahead of hoped-for EU accession talks next year, the government is cracking down on the drug trade. In the past year alone, the area under plantation has dropped by 75 per cent. In the desperately poor countryside, there is a strong economic imperative to grow the crop. Cannabis cultivation provides a cash income in rural areas, where the estimated unemployment rate is 70 per cent. Local growers are estimated to have earned around €300m last year, a similar amount to the annual remittances sent home by Albanians working in western Europe.

El cultivo de la flor de amapola en México y Colombia forma parte de una economía local destinada de forma casi exclusiva al mercado ilegal en el exterior: la demanda de heroína, principalmente en los Estados Unidos. En la actualidad existe una crisis humanitaria de gran envergadura en América del Norte en relación con este consumo y los opiáceos que circulan en este mercado. Las políticas de control del cultivo ilícito en México y Colombia han consistido exclusivamente en intervenciones con fuerza de erradicación, que provocan el desplazamiento del cultivo hacia otras zonas más remotas, la criminalización de los cultivadores y malestar en las comunidades afectadas.

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Australia’s cannabis industry could be earning the black market $25bn a year and, rather than policing it, we could be gaining revenue from it by legalising it, Greens senator David Shoebridge has said. “Law enforcement is spending billions of public dollars failing to police cannabis, and the opportunity here is to turn that all on its head by legalising it,” he said. In answer to a question from Shoebridge during Senate estimateson how much cannabis Australians consumed, the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (Acic) provided data from the nation’s wastewater which found 14.6 kilograms of THC (the psychoactive compound found in cannabis) per thousand people a year.

Things haven’t been this good in the illicit cannabis industry in British Columbia in many years. Factors such as increased wholesale prices on the black market, a low level of enforcement, and too many challenges for legal players from all levels of government are helping to encourage people to not transition into the legal market. As BC works to create a thriving legal cannabis industry alongside what is arguably one of the most robust illicit cannabis industries on the planet, the appeal of staying in the black market is strong. Even as many former black market growers and retailers do successfully make the transition to the legal industry, many others continue operating as they have for years. (See also: StatsCan: Legal pot spending beat black market for first time in Q2)

El narco se multiplica para seguir abasteciendo al mercado. El negocio del tráfico de drogas es más que nunca un monstruo de mil cabezas. El último informe anual del Observatorio Europeo sobre Drogas, presentado este jueves en Bruselas, así lo percibe, especialmente cuando se refiere a la cocaína. Las incautaciones de esta sustancia, la segunda más consumida tras el cannabis tanto en España como en Europa, están en su nivel más alto, pero su grado de pureza en la venta al por menor es el mayor en una década debido a que ha aumentado el volumen de producción. El diagnóstico es que la tecnología está cambiando el modus operandi en la distribución de cocaína.

Five years after cannabis legalization, California is awash with signs of an apparently booming industry. Californians can toke on Justin Bieber-branded joints and ash their blunts in Seth Rogen’s $95 ceramics. They can sip on THC-infused seltzers, relax inside a cannabis cafe, and get edibles delivered to their doors. But behind the flashy facade, the legal weed industry remains far from the law-abiding, prosperous sector many had hoped for. In fact, it’s a mess. Voters passed a law in November 2016 making recreational marijuana legal. But today, the vast majority of the market remains underground – about 80-90% of it, according to experts. (See also: ‘A farce of social equity’: California is failing its Black cannabis businesses)

La legalización de la marihuana ha reportado a las arcas públicas de Canadá 186 millones de dólares canadienses (139 millones de dólares estadounidenses) entre octubre de 2018 y marzo de 2019, según datos dados del organismo público Estadísticas Canadá (EC). Los impuestos especiales a la marihuana suponen un dólar extra por cada gramo. De esta cifra, un 25 % va a parar a las arcas federales y el resto, a las provinciales. Los impuestos a la marihuana legal están haciendo que muchos consumidores de cannabis sigan recurriendo a la compra de marihuana de fuentes no legalizadas. Los datos de EC establecen que, mientras que el precio medio de un gramo de marihuana legal en Canadá es de 10 dólares canadienses , en el mercado negro el precio es de 6,4 dólares canadienses.

El 17 de octubre de 2018 Canadá se convirtió en el segundo país en el mundo -después de Uruguay- en legalizar el uso recreativo de la marihuana. En ese momento, el optimismo se esparció entre los habitantes y vendedores de cannabis, generando una especie de "fiebre verde". Sin embargo, a más de un año de la puesta en marcha de la ley se han evidenciado una serie de deficiencias en cadena para adquirir y vender la hierba. Una de las principales preocupaciones es que el mercado negro de cannabis no ha desaparecido precisamente. Los impuestos especiales de un dólar por gramo y los costos de operar en una industria altamente regulada, generan que el cannabis legal aumente su precio esto hace que los consumidores prefieran comprar de manera ilegal.

Albania is expected to see an increase of cannabis production in the wake of the coronavirus. According to a report compiled by Europol, the cultivation of herbal cannabis is expected to increase as law enforcement resources are diverted to enforce compliance with COVID-19 restriction measures. The report points out that certain trafficking routes from the Western Balkans are still in use, based on recent large seizures of herbal cannabis in Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. In addition, in early May, a one metric tonne seizure of herbal cannabis was reported near the Albanian-Greek border. (See also: Cop among 37 arrested in Albania-Italy drugs op)